Coronavirus - a step forward or a blip in the stats?
Since I posted yesterday, the latest data has been made available and hopefully it is a good sign. For the last two days the % increase in the UK has held at 17%. Whilst this is still a significant increase, it is lower than other countries at this stage and if it holds at that sort of daily increase then it will significantly delay the spread of the virus - maybe not as long as the NHS needs but it would be a delay.
Based on the average increase yesterday I was predicting that we would be at similar numbers to Italy within 13 days but a daily increase of 17% would make that 20 days. Like said, it is a delay but probably not enough to make a significant difference to our healthcare system.
As we can see in the above chart, reducing the daily increase to 17% flattens the curve and also goes against the trends that we have seen in other countries, using the 100th case as the base point in each country:
Note that Italy is now on a downward trend and hopefully the measures they have put in place will pay off over the next few weeks with a continual reduction in daily % increase.
So is the UK number a blip in the data or are we all being a lot more cautious - working from home more and not travelling when we don't need to? There certainly seems to be a mixed stance on social media but maybe there are just enough people taking precautions to reduce the spread of the virus.
I'm certainly having second thoughts about travelling to a cyber security conference in London tomorrow. As interesting as the talks look, it is hardly essential.
Based on the average increase yesterday I was predicting that we would be at similar numbers to Italy within 13 days but a daily increase of 17% would make that 20 days. Like said, it is a delay but probably not enough to make a significant difference to our healthcare system.
Note that Italy is now on a downward trend and hopefully the measures they have put in place will pay off over the next few weeks with a continual reduction in daily % increase.So is the UK number a blip in the data or are we all being a lot more cautious - working from home more and not travelling when we don't need to? There certainly seems to be a mixed stance on social media but maybe there are just enough people taking precautions to reduce the spread of the virus.
I'm certainly having second thoughts about travelling to a cyber security conference in London tomorrow. As interesting as the talks look, it is hardly essential.
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