Is good hygiene and common sense working?
With much criticism of the government's latest action and guidance on COVID-19, with calls for school's closure and more drastic action, does the data paint a brighter picture than we might think?
Whilst there is no doubt that the number of cases is increasing in the UK and nobody wants to see more cases, let alone deaths - there is some evidence that the current action is working to ensure we don't reach the numbers that we have seen elsewhere in Europe.
If we look at the daily increase % in the UK compared to Italy and China based on Day 1 being the point at which the country reaches 100 cases:
The UK is still tracking at well below these 2 countries and that is without any drastic measures.
With more people woring from home, major events being cancelled and a greater focus on hygiene - is that having the desired effect? The roads are certainly quieter and London is nowhere near as busy as it normally is.
So although the government are getting a lot of grief, perhaps the science that they are relying on is guiding them to the desired effect.
If we assume that the daily increase in the UK will stay at an average of 22% then the cumulative number of cases might look something like this:
So the curve is still increasing but a lot slower than it did China and Italy. The success of any measures will obviously be whether that line starts to flatten out and the daily % increase starts to come down. But perhaps for now, the response is the correct one - taking children out of school's has it's own challenges, especially for those parents that are both in full time employment and anyone that has tried to keep a toddler in the house for more than a couple of days will know that it is not an action to be taken lightly!
But why all the fuss? What makes COVID-19 different to any previous concerns of pandemics?
There are many people who are comparing COVID-19 to the seasonal flu and other related viruses that we have seen over recent years such as Swine flu and Bird flu. So what's the big deal with this one?
The main differences between COVID-19 and seasonal flu is two-fold, firstly the % of people that die from seasonal flu is approximately 1in 1000 in European countries, but for COVID-19 that rate is expected to be between 20-30 people per 1,000. COVID-19 is also more easily spread than seasonal flu with reports that for every person infected, they are likely to infect 2-3 people. For seasonal flu that is only 1.3 people. Lastly there is no vaccination or immunity to COVID-19 so people are at more risk.
But what about other viruses? This diagram from National Geographic demonstrates the key differences.
SARS for example had a higher death rate but a lot less cases, H1N1 (swine flu) had far more cases and it is suggested that 1 in 5 people worldwide contracted the virus, but the mortality rate was less than 0.8%. Some scientists estimate that COVID-19 could reach the same infection rate worldwide but with a much higher mortality rate, currently estimated to be between 2-4% (it varies greatly by country).
So it is a combination of the mortality rate, the rate of infection and the lack of vaccine that is causing the concern for COVID-19. Whether that concern is proportionate to the reaction, well that is something that will be debated well beyond the next few months and decisions made will likely be big talking points in the virtual history books of the future.
Whilst there is no doubt that the number of cases is increasing in the UK and nobody wants to see more cases, let alone deaths - there is some evidence that the current action is working to ensure we don't reach the numbers that we have seen elsewhere in Europe.
If we look at the daily increase % in the UK compared to Italy and China based on Day 1 being the point at which the country reaches 100 cases:
With more people woring from home, major events being cancelled and a greater focus on hygiene - is that having the desired effect? The roads are certainly quieter and London is nowhere near as busy as it normally is.
So although the government are getting a lot of grief, perhaps the science that they are relying on is guiding them to the desired effect.
If we assume that the daily increase in the UK will stay at an average of 22% then the cumulative number of cases might look something like this:
But why all the fuss? What makes COVID-19 different to any previous concerns of pandemics?
There are many people who are comparing COVID-19 to the seasonal flu and other related viruses that we have seen over recent years such as Swine flu and Bird flu. So what's the big deal with this one?
The main differences between COVID-19 and seasonal flu is two-fold, firstly the % of people that die from seasonal flu is approximately 1in 1000 in European countries, but for COVID-19 that rate is expected to be between 20-30 people per 1,000. COVID-19 is also more easily spread than seasonal flu with reports that for every person infected, they are likely to infect 2-3 people. For seasonal flu that is only 1.3 people. Lastly there is no vaccination or immunity to COVID-19 so people are at more risk.
But what about other viruses? This diagram from National Geographic demonstrates the key differences.
So it is a combination of the mortality rate, the rate of infection and the lack of vaccine that is causing the concern for COVID-19. Whether that concern is proportionate to the reaction, well that is something that will be debated well beyond the next few months and decisions made will likely be big talking points in the virtual history books of the future.
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